There will be records from EVERY YEAR going forward that one day will one day be pricey.
Sure, I agree with that, but I don't think a lot of them will be these records that are selling out now. You ever hear the comment that there's no such thing as a rare American early hardcore record? Those bands all toured, had a strong fan base, and sold out of their pressings, even if they only made 500. As a result, those records exist in decent quantities, unlike a lot of slightly earlier punk records, some of which may have been a 1000 press, but the band sold or gave away 100 and then someone's mom threw away the other 900, and the people who bought the first 100 were not like rabid hardcore fans and most were lost anyway.
Now where my argument breaks down is that a lot of early hardcore records sell for $100+, even relatively large pressings like Minor Threat who made 5,000 of their first single over 4 pressings. It's all supply and demand, so if the demand is big enough, even 5,000 records won't fill it. I just don't see most of today's sold out pressings, too often marketed as collectables, being particularly rare or expensive 10+ years from now. I'd like to think there's some amazing bands out there who sell poorly and are only discovered later, but the internet makes that kind of impossible.
Depends on how long their career's last. You never know what the hell's going to happen.
Regardless of what any of you think of Jay's music, I'm willing to be he's not going to stop writing/recording/touring anytime soon. The more releases behind him, the more steam he'll pick up, as long as he keeps at it.
Something like the Vivian Girls, they have to put out at least 2 more studio albums probably before they'd
have something guaranteeing longterm longevity. If that's the case, the first press of their 1st LP probably won't go down in value too much. Probably will go down a bit after the ITR record is out. If they break up in a year, then, yeah, it'll probably go way the fuck down.
You just never know.
Look up Yo La Tengo "Painful" originals. Slowdive "Slouvaki" etc. Things that aren't THAT old can maintain value. Of course, Jay's not at Yo La Tengo level yet and Slowdive's an exception in that they garnered more popularity posthumously (helped by Mojave 3's success, too.)
Just saying, there's no rule that modern stuff will decrease in value.